Loading...
High-resolution Climate Projections for Ireland : A Multi-model Ensemble Approach
Nolan, Paul Flanagan, Jason
Nolan, Paul
Flanagan, Jason
Citations
Altmetric:
Citation
Paul Nolan, Jason Flanagan, 'High-resolution Climate Projections for Ireland : A Multi-model Ensemble Approach', [report], Environmental Protection Agency, 2020-09, EPA Research Report, 339, 2020
Abstract
Description
The method of regional climate modelling was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the 21st-century climate of Ireland. The regional climate model (RCM) simulations were run at high spatial resolution (3.8 and 4 km), the first systematic study of its kind at this scale, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the projections can be partly quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the projections. Simulations were run for the reference period 1981-2000 and the future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. The Consortium for Small-scale Modeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) RCMs were used to downscale the following Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate model (GCM) datasets: CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH (four ensemble members), HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. To account for the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions, the future climate was simulated under both the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios.
Date
2020-09
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Corporate Name
Publisher
Environmental Protection Agency